July 11th 2008
Little manhattan soundtrack
We Fact Check the Left, Too!
counterpunch describes itself:here at counterpunch we have many friends and all the right enemies. and, guaranteed, you’ll never see any of us on the pundit line up at msnbc. we try to stay beyond the pale.
Someone I know described CounterPunch’s Cockburn (that’s pronounced “coe-burn” for those of you who are still stuck in the locker room) as ‘fallen off the far left edge’. We here at GNB have a tendency to, shall we say, concentrate upon the peccadilloes of “The Right” or “The GOP”, or “The NeoCons”. But this post is presented as evidence that we write about the knuckle-dragging-left-my-brain-at-home-stupidity of “The Left” as well.
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at counterpunch, ismael hossein-zadeh writes about problems with the theory of peak oil. interestingly, he gets it pretty much all wrong. let’s see how!culmination oil theory is based on a army of assumptions and omissions that make it less than reliable. to off with, it discounts or disregards the fact that force-frugal technologies have drastically improved (and will keep on to further improve) the efficaciousness of oil consumption. evidence shows that, for example, “over a period of five years (1994-99), u.s. gdp expanded over 20 percent while oil usage rose by only nine percent. before the 1973 oil shock, the ratio was about anecdote to solitary.”[4]
This is absolutely irrelevant to Peak Oil theory. Peak Oil says nothing about oil consumption.
second, peak oil theory pays scant attention to the drastically enabling new technologies that bring into the world made (and wish keep on to make) possible discovery and eradication of unguent reserves that were inaccessible no more than a short span ago. one of the results of the more proficient means of research and development has been a far higher success rate in finding new oil fields. the celebrity tariff has risen in twenty years from less than 70 percent to outstanding 80 percent. computers have helped to reduce the number of dry holes. horizontal drilling has boosted extraction. another important development has been deep-water offshore drilling, which the uncharted technologies now permit. good examples are the north sea, the gulf of mexico, and more recently, the promising offshore lubricant fields of west africa.[5]
Also irrelevant to Peak Oil theory. Peak Oil talks about the rate of extraction and how it follows a normal curve. Peak Oil theory says nothing about exploration.
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Little Manhattan (2005)
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third, peak oil theory also pays peremptorily shrift to what is from time to time called non-conventional unguent. these include canada’s giant reserves of unused-plump bitumen that can be processed to present common oil. although this was at considered cost inefficient, experts working in this area these days claim that they have brought down the cost from over $20 a barrel to $8 per barrel. similar developments are taking pad in venezuela. it is thanks to developments like these that since 1970, world oil reserves eat more vente de viagra than doubled, despite the lineage of hundreds of millions of barrels.[6]
Irrelevant to Peak Oil theory. Peak Oil theory is about the rate of extraction, not about the form of the oil. If unconventional fields like tar sands and oil shale become a significant part of the actual extraction market, then we’ll have more data (and more oil). In the meantime, Peak Oil theory talks about what it knows: extraction of oil from any given field follows a generally normal distribution over time.
fourth, peak oil thesis pays insufficient concentration to energy sources other than oil. these include solar, wind, non-food bio-ammunition, and nuclear energies. they also cover natural gas. gas is now in the matter of 25 percent of verve demand worldwide. it is estimated that by 2050 it order be the main source of determination in the world. a number of american, european, and japanese firms sooner a be wearing and are investing heavily in developing fuel cells concerning cars and other vehicles that would significantly reduce gasoline consumption.[7]
Irrelevant to Peak Oil theory. Peak Oil theory is about the extraction of oil. It says nothing about alternative forms of energy. It also says nothing about the rate of consumption of energy or even oil.
fifth, proponents of peak oil tend to exaggerate the repercussions of the increased oil demand coming from china and india on both the amount and the price of oil in global markets. the alleged difference between supply and require is said to be due to the fast growing demand coming from china and india. but that rapid growth in requirement is in general restitution by a mass of counterbalancing factors. these include slower growth in u.s. insistence due to its slower economic growth, efficient get-up-and-go utilization in industrially advanced countries, and
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